To Top

Tag Archive: interest rates

  1. Reflecting and Projecting 2023 – 2024

    Comments Off on Reflecting and Projecting 2023 – 2024

    As humans, it is natural for us to take things for granted.  Our children will stay young forever.  A business will continue on its current growth trajectory.  2023’s rapidly changing interest rate environment served as a reminder that things can change quickly.  On March 17, 2022, the federal government set out to slow down an economy that was growing at an unsustainable rate.  The federal funds rate rose from 0.25% to 0.50% in March 2022 to 5.25 to 5.50% on July 26, 2023 which represents the last rate hike (https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/).  That’s 500 basis points in 16 months!  Rapidly increasing the federal funds rate achieved the government’s goal of slowing inflation.  The speed of change was rapid, being the fastest in multiple decades, and sent shock waves throughout the commercial real estate world. Some of Black Diamond Realty’s observations are captured in the bullet points below.

    • Buyers were forced to adjust their internal underwriting to account for higher borrowing costs, due to higher interest rates, which ultimately led to rising cap rates.
    • Sellers are also forced to adjust value expectations when evaluating their assets and pricing to meet required DSC for Buyers of their assets (making it a bankable deal). Sellers are slow to adjust to a changing economy.  Human nature protects our psyche resulting in most sellers reluctancy to accept the fact that asset valuations from mid-2022 are no longer an accurate representation of today’s market value.
    • The buyer-seller gap was wide at the beginning of early 2023 but slowly shrunk. Like many things in life, time heals wounds or, in this case, narrows the buyer-seller value expectation gap.
    • Banks are quick to adjust pricing and risk tolerance guidance and adjust required DSC levels and reprice assets.
    • Banks struggle with nonperforming assets and collections.
    • Metro markets often rise faster than tertiary markets and, therefore, tend to fall faster when economic conditions adjust. The markets Black Diamond Realty services experienced a slowdown in activity but it was much less profound than many metro markets consuming national media.
    • Greater increase in creative deal structures including seller financing.
    • Higher interest rates make leasing a more attractive option for some businesses. In comparison to sale volume, leasing activity has experienced increased transactions across most sectors of commercial real estate.
    • High borrowing costs, combined with increased labor and material costs, have resulted in a significant slowdown in new construction starts. This is a national trend in most markets.
    • Land sales have slowed. Higher interest rates and increased construction costs make it more difficult to “pencil” returns that meet developer hurdle (internal return) rates.
    • Less individuals can afford to buy their “dream home” because of rising home prices and rapidly changing interest rates which has resulted in many potential buyers sitting on the sidelines and renting longer. Market rents have continued to tick up in most markets helping to create greater demand in CRE’s multifamily sector . Market inventory continues to be the key struggle leading to lower transaction volume this sector.

    2023’s theme was rapid change.  What will 2024 look and feel like?  Predicting the future is impossible, but national trends and experience allow us to make educated guesses.  Please bear in mind you should always complete your own due diligence before making an investment decision.  Black Diamond Realty’s 2024 predictions are as follows:

    • The Federal government is anticipated to lower interest rates three to six times throughout the year. BDR anticipates four lowering events with a final result between 100 to 150 basis points.
    • Election years usually create uncertainty and fear which causes many investors and businesses to adopt a holding pattern. Declining interest rates should create a market buzz but uncertain political outcomes will soften 2024’s activity.  In comparison to 2023, greater CRE deal volume is anticipated.
    • Combined with high bank CD and money market rates, 2023’s slowdown in CRE activity has led to pent up demand with a lot of “powder” sitting on the sidelines. Cash is, once again, king/queen.  “One person’s demise is another’s potential treasure.”  Many adjustable and/or maturing loans will present buying opportunities over the next 12-24 months.
    • Banks will be quick to move nonperforming/uncollectable assets off their books. This will create opportunities for buyers to pick up properties at a discount…timing and connections will be key to buying up these assets.
    • Office assets, overleveraged real estate and properties financed with short-term debt all face headwinds in 2024. Distress, leading to buying opportunities, is anticipated across these categories.
    • User demand for industrial/logistics, retail and residential is anticipated to remain strong.
    • Cash buyers and international investors are anticipated to be more prevalent.
    • Banks will continue to tighten their lending belts and stress properties at higher interest rates (8-9%). Debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) levels will continue to be higher than pre-COVID levels.  Most banks will require a 1.25 DSCR

    We often joke Black Diamond Realty is not a group of magicians.  We are skilled CRE professionals whose job is to maximize exposure, navigate complicated processes and provide sound consultative investment and decision-making guidance based upon experience.  We are in the commercial real estate trenches every day.  We do not sell homes.

    Diversifying investments, pursuit of passive income, filling a void in your portfolio’s performance (leasing) and liquidating an asset to meet long-term goals are all reasons to contact our Black Diamond Realty team.  Call our team of experts today to set up a consultation.  We look forward to serving you in 2024 and beyond.

    Article by:
    David Lorenze, CCIM Principal, and team.

  2. Reflecting and Projecting 2022 – 2023

    Comments Off on Reflecting and Projecting 2022 – 2023

    Congratulations!  You just rode one of the wildest rollercoasters the modern economy has ever experienced.  Roughly one year ago, experts predicted interest rates would begin ticking up twenty-five to fifty basis points, with a target of 4.5 to 5% interest rates.  The goal was, and still is, to fight record high inflation (9.1% in June 2022; a 40-year high).  Many projections were far off, including ours.  In today’s market, a 4.5 to 5.0% interest rate on a deal is unheard of and would make investors drool.    As we enter a new year, we are looking at the prime rate hovering in the mid sevens; that’s 7.5%!  This marks a 400-basis point increase in the past nine months.[i]  Last year experienced the most aggressive economic tightening campaign in over three decades.  So, how does that affect commercial real estate?

    Rising interest rates put downward pressure on valuations.  Financial institutions, including regional and national banks, typically want to achieve a 1.20 to 1.25 debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR), meaning 20%-25% of a project’s cash flow is available to pay current debt obligations.  When the cost of borrowing funds increases, meeting required DSCR ratios is more difficult, and a buyer cannot afford to pay as much value to a seller while still maximizing leverage (borrowing power).  A buyer either has to come up with more capital to lower the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio or lower the offer price.  Here is an example:

    ABC Investment LLC has renovated an asset and wants to cash out to redeploy capital into the next project. You like the asset a lot.  You offer full asking price – $1,250,000.  A bank that requires an 80% LTV ratio (some banks will offer lower, say – 70-75% LTV) will result in you needing to borrow $1,000,000.  Nine months ago (Q2 2022), you could have hypothetically achieved an interest rate of 3.65% (Black Diamond often saw rates between 3.25% to 4.00%). Amortizing $1,000,000 over 20 years at 3.65% interest results in a monthly payment of $5,876.97.  Fast forward nine months (Q1 2023), and that same loan structure has changed drastically.[1]

    As of December 15, 2022, the current prime rate is 7.5% in the U.S., according to The Wall Street Journal’s Money Rates table, which lists the most common prime rates charged throughout the U.S. and in other countries by averaging out the prime rate from the ten largest banks in each country.  The federal funds rate is currently 4.25% to 4.50%.  With that in mind, you can see how the “fed funds plus 3.00” rule of thumb plays out:  3.00% + 4.50% = 7.50%.[ii]  At Black Diamond Realty, we would argue this rate is very conservative, as our experience has resulted in many regional banks willing to entertain deals at lower interest rates – with a 250 to 300 basis point spread in play.

    Getting back to our example, your investment company’s new interest rate (7.25%; 275 basis point higher than federal rate) results in a monthly expense of $7,903.76.  The difference between a 3.65% interest rate and a 7.25% interest rate is $2,026.79/month.  The yearly difference is $24,321.48.  In today’s market, let’s assume a regional multi-family asset comps out and sells at a 7% capitalization rate.  Utilizing a 7% capitalization rate, the $24,321.48 yearly interest rate difference results in a downward value adjustment of $347,449.71 ($24,321.48 / 0.07).  This ~$350K difference results in a seller/buyer “value gap.”  Buyers are forced to react quickly because the capital markets respond within weeks, often days.  Some buyers are struggling to find deals while sellers reassess their motivations to liquidate.   Sellers are realizing they missed the market peak.  Buyers are coming to the table with greater liquidity to meet DSCR (healthy, “bankable” deal) and bridge the seller gap.

    The current market reflects the seller-buyer gap.  On its own, this would be bad news for sellers everywhere. Fortunately for the market, supply and demand also comes into play.  Like many things in our economy, construction materials (think Lowe’s, Menards, Home Depot) have experienced significant inflation in 2022.  Construction expenses rose 13.7% since September 2021.[iii]  Higher construction expenses, including excavation work, have resulted in lower nationwide new housing construction starts.  Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,427,000.  This is a 0.5 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,434,000 housing starts and is 16.4 percent below the November 2021 rate of 1,706,000.[iv]

    The same trend is true across most sectors of commercial real estate.  Higher material costs combined with higher costs of borrowing funds (interest rates) has resulted in a slowdown of new construction activity.  We anticipate this trend to continue.  Sticking with the multifamily sector, lower housing starts have resulted in increased rents and corresponding increased valuations.  The same data shows a downward trend in construction costs during Q4, 2022 which is something to watch in 2023.  So, what else can we expect in 2023?

    Deals happen in all cycles of commercial real estate.  Rising interest rates create downward pressure but, on the flip side, rising rents/income result in higher valuation.  Do these two opposite effects counterbalance each other?  The answer is specific to each commercial real estate sector (supply/demand) and the specific market.  Depending upon the market, rising income is outpacing inflation which continues to push rents higher.  The risk lies in the job market.  Job loss and higher unemployment will eventually reduce consumer purchasing power and result in less demand for materials, goods and real estate.  When unemployment rises, rent growth will be at risk for most sectors of commercial real estate.  Our team is keeping a close eye on unemployment in 2023.

    The ‘R’ word has been tossed around many dinner tables and watering holes across America.  An economic recession occurs when GDP, which measures trade and industrial activity, declines in two successive quarters.  Are we amid a recession?  US Government courses reported that Quarter 3 of 2022 saw a 3.2% increase in GDP over the previous quarter.[v] This increase is welcoming news after two quarters of declining GDP.  Some fear the data is artificially inflated due to the government’s easing of energy costs.  The biggest challenge in reviewing federal government data is the lag.  Most data lags at least three months, sometimes six, which means the Fed is making decisions based upon outdated information.  What does the real estate market cycle forecast look like knowing this?  Keep reading.

    Real estate market cycles vary by sector and location, amongst other factors.  Mueller’s[vi] forecasting model breaks down the real estate market cycle into four phases:

    1. Recovery
    2. Expansion
    3. Hypersupply
    4. Recession

    Mueller’s Real Estate Market Cycle Forecast, As of Q2-2022

    There are 16 total points along the horizontal axis.  Points 1-11 are in phases 1 and 2 which represent a period of growth.  Points 12-16 are in phases 3 and 4 which represent a period of decline.    The four market cycle quadrants have varying characteristics.  Phase 1, Recovery, is characterized by declining vacancy with little to no new construction.  Negative rental growth to below inflation rental growth is expected during this part of the cycle.  Phase 2, Expansion, is characterized by declining vacancy with greater new construction.  High rent growth is common.  Phase 3, Hypersupply, is characterized by increasing construction with continued and/or increasing construction.  Rent growth remains positive but begins to decline.  Phase 4, Recession, experiences increasing vacancy with more completions.  Below inflation and negative rent growth is experienced during this part of the cycle.  The Mueller report’s primary objective is to enhance investment decision analysis – to make investors aware of national trends.[vii] 

    Sector breakdowns are provided in the bullet points below with quick comments about the regional market.  Keep in mind what is happening in New York City, NY is not necessarily a direct correlation to what is happening in Bridgeport, WV; hence several anecdotal comments from Black Diamond Realty’s perspective which are focused on the two core areas we serve:  North Central WV and WV’s Eastern Panhandle.  We recommend referencing the chart as you review the points below.  Mueller’s data is the black bullet points.  Black Diamond’s points are white sub-bullet points. In addition to this distinction (national trend – Mueller vs. Black Diamond), bear in mind Mueller’s chart lags by two quarters.  The cycle has progressed along the bell curve over the past three to six months.

    Point 11:  Peak of Phase 2 – Expansion Cycle

    • Industrial – Warehouse
      • Remains strong throughout north central WV and WV’s Eastern Panhandle. For north central WV, keep an eye on oil and gas volatility/strength in 2023.  For WV’s Eastern Panhandle, we are watching consumer confidence and retail strength.
    • Apartment
      • Remains strong in both markets due, in part, to the ability to push rental rates to counteract rising interest rates.
    • Retail – Neighborhood/Community
      • Still demand albeit at a slowing pace in both markets. Headwinds are forming which we believe will negatively affect all subsectors of retail.

    Point 12:  Beginning of Phase 3 – Hypersupply

    • Industrial – R&D Flex
      • Flex space has remained strong in both markets. North central WV has an undersupply of quality, newer flex space with docking capability.  The Eastern Panhandle has consistently filled any new supply but it appears some headwinds could be forming (Hypersupply phase) where new product is taking longer to secure tenancy.
    • Office – Suburban
      • Demand still exists albeit at a slower clip compared to pre-Covid.
    • Retail – Factory Outlet

    Point 13:  Middle of Phase 3 – Hypersupply

    • Office – Downtown
      • Major metro markets have struggled post-Covid. In smaller/tertiary markets, he jury is still out on whether long-term leases will restructure plans as
    • Retail – Power Center

    Point 14:  End of Phase 3 – Hypersupply

    • Retail – 1st Tier
    • Regional Malls

    Point 15:  Middle of Phase 3 – Recession

    • 2nd & 3rd Tier Regional Malls [vii]

    Predicting future trends is nearly impossible.  Market dynamics are complex and can shift quickly.  Our team of experts has made some observations and anticipations for 2023.  In no way, shape or form are we suggesting these “educated guesses” to be fact.  Mere predictions are not indicative of actual future results.  Please consult with your professional legal and financial advisors, complete your own due diligence and draw your own conclusions pertaining to the best financial moves for you.

    Black Diamond Realty Predictions:

    Real estate is considered by many as a great hedge against high inflation and a strong diversification play.  Income producing assets are still warm, not hot, as an investment diversification play.  Activity has cooled due to higher interest rates putting downward pressure on valuations.  Ranking the sectors is difficult because there are so many factors (location, age, tenant, traffic patterns, surrounding amenities, etc.) but anticipated trends can be projected.  In addition, there are several macroeconomic and microeconomic items we anticipate playing out in 2023.

    • Multifamily and industrial are anticipated to remain strong in the markets we serve. However, look for headwinds beginning to form within 12 to 24 months.  Office is the weakest sector as evidenced by higher-than-average historical vacancy rates caused by lower demand created, in part, by work-from-home trends.
    • Tertiary markets with a core employment base of eds, meds and government jobs (considered recession resistant) will become more attractive to outside investors who are seeking a “safe place” to park capital. West Virginia has significant positive momentum as evidenced by the numerous basic employment announcements throughout 2022.  Tertiary markets, similar to several growing areas in West Virginia (North Central, Eastern Panhandle), offer higher cap rates which are attractive to investors.  Review Black Diamond Realty’s October newsletter article which compiles numerous statewide job announcements.  Click Here.
    • One to two additional rate hikes in the first half of 2023. We anticipate a reversal, declining rates, starting as early as Q3 or Q4, 2023.
      • Can the government continue to service its debt at high interest rates? An economist who follows monetary policy, politics and global business much closer than our team will need to answer that question.  What we know about monetary policy and our government’s current debt obligations is concerning, at best – downright frightening to others.
    • Black Diamond Realty anticipates seeing debt options with lower LTV ratios in 2023. Banks will adjust from offering 75-85% LTV to a range of 70-80% LTV.
    • Construction starts will continue to slow in most sectors. Multifamily and industrial may continue to expand in 2023 but high interest rates are putting downward pressure on construction starts.
    • Consumer confidence will slip. Challenging retail financial reports will follow.  There will be heightened volatility in the stock market.
    • Our belief is that we are in the midst of a recession. It is either already here or quickly approaching.  Government data lags by several months.  Consumer confidence has declined during 2022.[viii]Inflation reached record highs in 2022 although it has been declining in recent months.  Some believe the inflation decline is, in part, artificially enhanced by the government’s proactive action in releasing 1 million barrels per day of oil reserves.  Energy prices will remain volatile especially if/when this strategy is lifted.
    • Black Diamond Realty is keeping a close eye on unemployment. When unemployment rates increase, consumer purchasing power will decline which will have a trickle up effect to GDP, negatively influencing most sectors in commercial real estate (most notably, retail).
    • For Black Diamond Realty, sales volume is forecasted to decrease while leasing volume will increase which should lead to leasing price increases in the high demand sectors (industrial and multifamily).

    We recommend each party consults with its professional accountant, tax, and legal advisors to better understand the effects of market conditions and real estate transactions.  Primary keys to successful investments are knowing the market, the numbers and market trends.  Our professional team at Black Diamond Realty is an industry leader.  Our company mission is to add value to the communities we serve.  We look forward to consulting with you in 2023.  Make it a successful investment year.

    [1] It should be noted that interest rates can change drastically depending upon many factors, including the deal’s strength, the borrower’s financial strength (including investment and business experience), debt-to-liquidity ratios, and LTV.

     

    SOURCES

    [i] https://www.jpmorganchase.com/about/our-business/historical-prime-rate

    [ii] https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/prime-rate/

    [iii]https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/producer-prices-for-final-demand-rose-7-4-percent-over-the-year-ended-november-2022.htm

    [iv] https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

    [v] https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#:~:text=Gross%20Domestic%20Product%20(Third%20Estimate,(Revised)%2C%20Third%20Quarter%202022&text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,percent%20in%20the%20second%20quarter

    [vi]https://www.ccim.com/uploadedfiles/content/members/cycle%20forecast%202q22.pdf

    [vii]https://www.ccim.com/uploadedfiles/content/members/cycle%20forecast%202q22.pdf

    [viii]https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/21/economy/consumer-confidence-index-december/index.html#:~:text=Consumer%20confidence%2C%20as%20measured%20by,inflation%20seen%20in%20four%20decades

     

    Article by:
    David Lorenze, Principal

  3. How Will Inflation Impact Commercial Real Estate?

    Comments Off on How Will Inflation Impact Commercial Real Estate?

    We’ve all noticed the change — at the supermarket, gas pumps, and nearly everywhere else. Whether it was the cost of your Christmas tree or your New Year’s Eve champagne, prices are significantly higher today than they were just one year ago. In fact, the Consumer Price Index has climbed 6.8% in just the last year, the largest inflationary jump the U.S. has seen since 1982.

    Initially, the Federal Reserve had categorized our current economic situation as “transitory inflation.” In other words, a temporary and predicted result of the pandemic and its impact on our economy. In the last month, however, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has admitted that our current inflation will likely last longer than initially anticipated.

    With the knowledge that we may need to endure inflation for longer than expected, it’s time to examine how inflation could impact commercial real estate.

    Real Estate as a Hedge Against Inflation

    Many investors purchase real estate and other tangible assets to hedge against inflation. While most investments, including stocks, tend to react negatively in inflationary conditions, the value of property reacts proportionally to the inflation rate and appreciates as inflation climbs. In other words, if you have a loan on a commercial property, and have locked in a low interest rate on that loan, the value of your property will continue to rise with inflation, even as your cost remains the same.

    Knowing the relationship between inflation, costs and interest rates allows us to make other predictions about the impact of inflation on commercial real estate.

    The impact of Supply and Demand on Leasing

    Our economy is influenced by countless factors, including supply and demand. Some of our current inflation has been caused by the supply chain issues that have plagued the globe for well over a year. When materials and products are scarce, prices of those items increase. And when prices increase, typically the cost of labor also escalates.

    Increasing labor and material costs could force some developers to put the brakes on building new properties. As a result, demand for existing properties would then climb, and property owners would be able to raise rental rates.

    At the same time, we could also expect to see owners offering shorter-term leases. While a shorter term doesn’t offer owners the same stability in occupancy over time, it does provide owners with the opportunity to adjust rental rates more frequently and take advantage of the increased demand for their space.

    The Impact of Inflation and Interest Rates on Market Share

    Just as increased costs make it more difficult for developers to build, increasing interest rates will make it more difficult — or at least less advantageous —to borrow money. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates as many as three times this year and anticipates raising rates at least three more times by the end of 2024. The combination of higher inflation and higher interest rates will not only cause developers to build less, but existing property owners will likely choose to hold on to their assets.

    In a rapidly developing real estate market, property owners lose market share every time a new building opens its doors. However, when development slows, owners maintain their market share. Again, this will give owners the upper hand when setting rental rates and terms.

    How Long will These Conditions Last?

    Just as it has been difficult to predict how long the coronavirus pandemic will last, it is also a challenge to forecast how long our pandemic-influenced economic conditions will prevail. It has become apparent that inflation is not just a transitory blip on our economic radar, and we’ll be dealing with the repercussions of rising prices for at least another year.

    While some of us who recall the economy in the 1970s are anxious about our current conditions, history is unlikely to repeat itself in another “Great Inflation.” The economic drivers behind our current conditions are different from those in the 1970s, and economists are better prepared to manage inflation than they were 40 to 50 years ago.

    The Fed will attempt to temper inflation through adjustments in interest rates and reduced bond purchases. However, Fed Chairman Powell has acknowledged that our high consumer prices will continue well into summer 2022, and investment group Goldman Sachs is projecting that inflation will get worse before conditions begin to improve. But for those who currently hold commercial real estate and those who are considering adding property to their investment portfolios, our current economy could provide opportunity.

    Original Article written by: GARY TASMAN for NAIOP

  4. Reflecting and Projecting, BDR’s Outlook on 2022

    Comments Off on Reflecting and Projecting, BDR’s Outlook on 2022

    Macroeconomics (think interest rates and national productivity) greatly impact the commercial real estate markets we serve. Three major macro topics of 2021 were inflation, interest rates and labor participation. The most recent data released by the federal government indicates year-over-year inflation is at 6.2%, which is a rise from the previous quarter’s 5.4% and a multi-decade high. From higher price tags at the gas pumps to greater expense at the grocery store, inflation causes the dollars we have in our possession to have lower purchasing power.

    The current rate of inflation has initiated discussion about interest rate increases to combat inflationary concerns. Historically, the federal government has utilized one of its key monetary policy levers, interest rate control, in high inflationary periods. The Federal Chairman, Jerome Powell, and his team anticipates three interest rate hikes in 2022 and another three in 2023. BDR projects interest rates to rise 75 to 125 basis points in 2022. On average, BDR has seen commercial real estate interest rates hover around 3.5% (3.25% – 3.75%) in 2021. If BDR’s projected 2022 increase is accurate (utilizing 1% interest rate increase), a $1MM loan will be $6,322.68 more per year when amortized over 20 years.

    In 2021, BDR saw a significant increase in demand for investment commercial real estate. Investors are looking to diversify. Low interest rates is one key reason. Other contributing factors include high inflation, speculation the stock market is due for a correction and investors desire to move into tertiary/rural markets. Black Diamond Realty’s thoughts behind these contributing factors include:

    • Low Interest Rates: The low cost of borrowing funds allows purchasers to pay more which helps meet seller valuation expectations.
    • High Inflation: Commercial real estate has historically been an excellent hedge against high inflationary environments. Income producing assets (investment properties) are in highest demand. In some markets, rising rents can keep up with, or ideally exceed, the rate of inflation. Some commercial leases have automatic CPI adjustments. In other growing markets, demand outpaces supply which allows rents to be pushed beyond inflation.
    • Speculation of a Forthcoming Stock Market Correction: Markets react in unique and complex ways to variables. History tells us the average bull run lasts ~8 years. Excluding the ~6 month pandemic-initiated recession, the stock market has been on a bull run since 2009. History tells us a correction could be coming. Some believe it. Others do not. Nobody knows when but the fear surrounding this variable encourages investors to make diversification decisions.
    • Increased Demand for Tertiary Market Investments: The pandemic has created a shift in mindset, beliefs and practices that has hurt many metro markets but has also created positive momentum for some tertiary markets that boast high quality of life. Eds, meds and government are seen as recession-resistant sectors. Morgantown, WV and Bridgeport, WV are excellent examples of cities that are thriving in the midst of the pandemic. Demand for these areas has increased as remote working concepts have gained popularity and individuals are transitioning out of densely populated areas.

    The factors above have resulted in compressed cap rates and corresponding higher valuations. It is a great time for a seller to exit an asset while a difficult time for purchasers to find deals. Black Diamond Realty has experienced a significant increase in off-market deal activity and we anticipate this trend to continue.

    North central WV and southwestern PA are enjoying many economic highlights as our nation moves further beyond the Covid pandemic. Some of the north central WV highlights are captured below.

    • WVU Medicine continues to expand with the forthcoming opening of its 10-story Children’s Hospital on WVU’s main campus.
    • WestRidge Development continues to expand its footprint as new uses are introduced to the Morgantown, WV market. Most notably, Bass Pro Shop and Menards opened its door in 2021. Many more uses and buildings are in the works.
    • Morgantown Industrial Park is expanding to create additional, large pads in Phase II of the development which are anticipated to have more direct access to I-79. A 47-acre sale sparked Phase II’s development.
    • David and Rick Biafora are investing significantly into the revitalization of Middletown Mall, now called Middletown Commons. The total projected investment is ~$40-50 million which should have a significant positive effect on South Fairmont and White Hall’s local economy.
    • Mitsubishi hires 400-500 additional workers at North Central West Virginia Airport location in Bridgeport, WV.
    • Charles Point continues to expand which will soon include 50-60 acres of retail including anchor retailer, Menards.
    • Bridgeport introduced a state-of-the-art, 156,000 square foot multi-purpose facility to its community.  The Bridge Sports Complex brings tremendous recreational and quality of life opportunities to Harrison County and beyond.
    • Ascend WV is receiving positive national highlight reel exposure and has helped reverse a decades old trend of individuals migrating out of WV. According to WAJR, “Between July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, West Virginia had a net migration of 2,343. More people moved into the state than out of it.”
    • West Virginia’s Grant and Tucker Counties won big in securing Virgin’s Hyperloop. This multi-state, competitive process was successfully secured on an 800 acre site in central WV.
    • New River Gorge National Park System was introduced as West Virginia’s first federal national park.

    BDR worked hard to achieve its clients’ goals in 2021. The BDR team closed 87 deals in 2021 with 61% leases versus 39% sales. BDR added a new colleague, Caleb Wooldridge, to our growing team. Caleb joins BDR as a recent WVU graduate who majored in Economics and interned with David as an undergraduate. We are excited to watch Caleb flourish in the years ahead.

    In his fourth year, Jeff Stenger continues his climb by surpassing production year after year. Jeff’s empathetic, hard-working and detailed-oriented demeanor adds tremendous value to the clients he serves.

    Chris Waters has been dubbed the medical marijuana and industrial guru in BDR’s office. Last year was a breakout year for Chris and 2022 looks to continue that growth.

    In her first full year with the team, Kim Licciardi set a BDR record for Year 1 production. Kim’s underwriting knowledge, business acumen and confidence have quickly propelled her onto a path as a top producer.

    BDR’s sales team would not be where it is today without the skillset, support and moral fabric that Janelle Zeoli and Andrea Cooper provide daily. These two women are invaluable to the BDR team and continue to support our growth and development.

    As we close the 2021 chapter, we are pleased to announce BDR is aggressively and actively working toward opening a second office in Martinsburg, WV. We will be recruiting and hiring key team members in the market with a specific focus on fostering client relationships and fortifying vendor contacts. We are optimistic our presentation, process and people will be well received in this new market. There will be more to come in a future announcement.

    Our team promises to continue to strive to raise the standard while exceeding expectations in this new year and beyond. Thank you for your trust and confidence and we look forward to making 2022 a great year, together.