On February 6th, the BDR crew departed for their 2023 Reward Trip to One Happy Island, Aruba! The team spent six amazing days in the sun together making memories and reenergizing for the busy year ahead.
Black Diamond Realty has created a family-like, teamwork-oriented culture in which our team is vested in each other’s success. Our process is detailed and diligent but it surrounds core values and beliefs that are summarized by the acronym, HIT. “ H ” stands for honesty, hard work and humility. “ I ” stands for integrity, intelligence and innovation. “ T ” stands for teamwork, tenacity and technology. Maintaining a consistent focus on honoring our HIT value system, BDR’s team works tirelessly to achieve our clients’ goals. Recharging the battery is paramount to providing a high level of service.
Each year, Black Diamond Realty provides an incentive trip intended to reward team members who meet individual and company goals. 2023’s destination was the island of Aruba. The team soaked up some much needed sun at the ocean front Riu Resort. The six days included lots of sun, exploring of the island via Jeep tour, endless beverages, late night live entertainment on the pier and so much more. Our team returned to Morgantown recharged and excited for another successful year.
Thank you to all our clients, customers and reliable referral sources for trusting us with your projects. Check out some of our favorite moments below.
Comments Off on Reflecting and Projecting 2022 – 2023
Congratulations! You just rode one of the wildest rollercoasters the modern economy has ever experienced. Roughly one year ago, experts predicted interest rates would begin ticking up twenty-five to fifty basis points, with a target of 4.5 to 5% interest rates. The goal was, and still is, to fight record high inflation (9.1% in June 2022; a 40-year high). Many projections were far off, including ours. In today’s market, a 4.5 to 5.0% interest rate on a deal is unheard of and would make investors drool. As we enter a new year, we are looking at the prime rate hovering in the mid sevens; that’s 7.5%! This marks a 400-basis point increase in the past nine months.[i] Last year experienced the most aggressive economic tightening campaign in over three decades. So, how does that affect commercial real estate?
Rising interest rates put downward pressure on valuations. Financial institutions, including regional and national banks, typically want to achieve a 1.20 to 1.25 debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR), meaning 20%-25% of a project’s cash flow is available to pay current debt obligations. When the cost of borrowing funds increases, meeting required DSCR ratios is more difficult, and a buyer cannot afford to pay as much value to a seller while still maximizing leverage (borrowing power). A buyer either has to come up with more capital to lower the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio or lower the offer price. Here is an example:
ABC Investment LLC has renovated an asset and wants to cash out to redeploy capital into the next project. You like the asset a lot. You offer full asking price – $1,250,000. A bank that requires an 80% LTV ratio (some banks will offer lower, say – 70-75% LTV) will result in you needing to borrow $1,000,000. Nine months ago (Q2 2022), you could have hypothetically achieved an interest rate of 3.65% (Black Diamond often saw rates between 3.25% to 4.00%). Amortizing $1,000,000 over 20 years at 3.65% interest results in a monthly payment of $5,876.97. Fast forward nine months (Q1 2023), and that same loan structure has changed drastically.[1]
As of December 15, 2022, the current prime rate is 7.5% in the U.S., according to The Wall Street Journal’s Money Rates table, which lists the most common prime rates charged throughout the U.S. and in other countries by averaging out the prime rate from the ten largest banks in each country. The federal funds rate is currently 4.25% to 4.50%. With that in mind, you can see how the “fed funds plus 3.00” rule of thumb plays out: 3.00% + 4.50% = 7.50%.[ii] At Black Diamond Realty, we would argue this rate is very conservative, as our experience has resulted in many regional banks willing to entertain deals at lower interest rates – with a 250 to 300 basis point spread in play.
Getting back to our example, your investment company’s new interest rate (7.25%; 275 basis point higher than federal rate) results in a monthly expense of $7,903.76. The difference between a 3.65% interest rate and a 7.25% interest rate is $2,026.79/month. The yearly difference is $24,321.48. In today’s market, let’s assume a regional multi-family asset comps out and sells at a 7% capitalization rate. Utilizing a 7% capitalization rate, the $24,321.48 yearly interest rate difference results in a downward value adjustment of $347,449.71 ($24,321.48 / 0.07). This ~$350K difference results in a seller/buyer “value gap.” Buyers are forced to react quickly because the capital markets respond within weeks, often days. Some buyers are struggling to find deals while sellers reassess their motivations to liquidate. Sellers are realizing they missed the market peak. Buyers are coming to the table with greater liquidity to meet DSCR (healthy, “bankable” deal) and bridge the seller gap.
The current market reflects the seller-buyer gap. On its own, this would be bad news for sellers everywhere. Fortunately for the market, supply and demand also comes into play. Like many things in our economy, construction materials (think Lowe’s, Menards, Home Depot) have experienced significant inflation in 2022. Construction expenses rose 13.7% since September 2021.[iii] Higher construction expenses, including excavation work, have resulted in lower nationwide new housing construction starts. Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,427,000. This is a 0.5 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,434,000 housing starts and is 16.4 percent below the November 2021 rate of 1,706,000.[iv]
The same trend is true across most sectors of commercial real estate. Higher material costs combined with higher costs of borrowing funds (interest rates) has resulted in a slowdown of new construction activity. We anticipate this trend to continue. Sticking with the multifamily sector, lower housing starts have resulted in increased rents and corresponding increased valuations. The same data shows a downward trend in construction costs during Q4, 2022 which is something to watch in 2023. So, what else can we expect in 2023?
Deals happen in all cycles of commercial real estate. Rising interest rates create downward pressure but, on the flip side, rising rents/income result in higher valuation. Do these two opposite effects counterbalance each other? The answer is specific to each commercial real estate sector (supply/demand) and the specific market. Depending upon the market, rising income is outpacing inflation which continues to push rents higher. The risk lies in the job market. Job loss and higher unemployment will eventually reduce consumer purchasing power and result in less demand for materials, goods and real estate. When unemployment rises, rent growth will be at risk for most sectors of commercial real estate. Our team is keeping a close eye on unemployment in 2023.
The ‘R’ word has been tossed around many dinner tables and watering holes across America. An economic recession occurs when GDP, which measures trade and industrial activity, declines in two successive quarters. Are we amid a recession? US Government courses reported that Quarter 3 of 2022 saw a 3.2% increase in GDP over the previous quarter.[v] This increase is welcoming news after two quarters of declining GDP. Some fear the data is artificially inflated due to the government’s easing of energy costs. The biggest challenge in reviewing federal government data is the lag. Most data lags at least three months, sometimes six, which means the Fed is making decisions based upon outdated information. What does the real estate market cycle forecast look like knowing this? Keep reading.
Real estate market cycles vary by sector and location, amongst other factors. Mueller’s[vi] forecasting model breaks down the real estate market cycle into four phases:
There are 16 total points along the horizontal axis. Points 1-11 are in phases 1 and 2 which represent a period of growth. Points 12-16 are in phases 3 and 4 which represent a period of decline. The four market cycle quadrants have varying characteristics. Phase 1, Recovery, is characterized by declining vacancy with little to no new construction. Negative rental growth to below inflation rental growth is expected during this part of the cycle. Phase 2, Expansion, is characterized by declining vacancy with greater new construction. High rent growth is common. Phase 3, Hypersupply, is characterized by increasing construction with continued and/or increasing construction. Rent growth remains positive but begins to decline. Phase 4, Recession, experiences increasing vacancy with more completions. Below inflation and negative rent growth is experienced during this part of the cycle. The Mueller report’s primary objective is to enhance investment decision analysis – to make investors aware of national trends.[vii]
Sector breakdowns are provided in the bullet points below with quick comments about the regional market. Keep in mind what is happening in New York City, NY is not necessarily a direct correlation to what is happening in Bridgeport, WV; hence several anecdotal comments from Black Diamond Realty’s perspective which are focused on the two core areas we serve: North Central WV and WV’s Eastern Panhandle. We recommend referencing the chart as you review the points below. Mueller’s data is the black bullet points. Black Diamond’s points are white sub-bullet points. In addition to this distinction (national trend – Mueller vs. Black Diamond), bear in mind Mueller’s chart lags by two quarters. The cycle has progressed along the bell curve over the past three to six months.
Point 11: Peak of Phase 2 – Expansion Cycle
Industrial – Warehouse
Remains strong throughout north central WV and WV’s Eastern Panhandle. For north central WV, keep an eye on oil and gas volatility/strength in 2023. For WV’s Eastern Panhandle, we are watching consumer confidence and retail strength.
Apartment
Remains strong in both markets due, in part, to the ability to push rental rates to counteract rising interest rates.
Retail – Neighborhood/Community
Still demand albeit at a slowing pace in both markets. Headwinds are forming which we believe will negatively affect all subsectors of retail.
Point 12: Beginning of Phase 3 – Hypersupply
Industrial – R&D Flex
Flex space has remained strong in both markets. North central WV has an undersupply of quality, newer flex space with docking capability. The Eastern Panhandle has consistently filled any new supply but it appears some headwinds could be forming (Hypersupply phase) where new product is taking longer to secure tenancy.
Office – Suburban
Demand still exists albeit at a slower clip compared to pre-Covid.
Retail – Factory Outlet
Point 13: Middle of Phase 3 – Hypersupply
Office – Downtown
Major metro markets have struggled post-Covid. In smaller/tertiary markets, he jury is still out on whether long-term leases will restructure plans as
Predicting future trends is nearly impossible. Market dynamics are complex and can shift quickly. Our team of experts has made some observations and anticipations for 2023. In no way, shape or form are we suggesting these “educated guesses” to be fact. Mere predictions are not indicative of actual future results. Please consult with your professional legal and financial advisors, complete your own due diligence and draw your own conclusions pertaining to the best financial moves for you.
Black Diamond Realty Predictions:
Real estate is considered by many as a great hedge against high inflation and a strong diversification play. Income producing assets are still warm, not hot, as an investment diversification play. Activity has cooled due to higher interest rates putting downward pressure on valuations. Ranking the sectors is difficult because there are so many factors (location, age, tenant, traffic patterns, surrounding amenities, etc.) but anticipated trends can be projected. In addition, there are several macroeconomic and microeconomic items we anticipate playing out in 2023.
Multifamily and industrial are anticipated to remain strong in the markets we serve. However, look for headwinds beginning to form within 12 to 24 months. Office is the weakest sector as evidenced by higher-than-average historical vacancy rates caused by lower demand created, in part, by work-from-home trends.
Tertiary markets with a core employment base of eds, meds and government jobs (considered recession resistant) will become more attractive to outside investors who are seeking a “safe place” to park capital. West Virginia has significant positive momentum as evidenced by the numerous basic employment announcements throughout 2022. Tertiary markets, similar to several growing areas in West Virginia (North Central, Eastern Panhandle), offer higher cap rates which are attractive to investors. Review Black Diamond Realty’s October newsletter article which compiles numerous statewide job announcements. Click Here.
One to two additional rate hikes in the first half of 2023. We anticipate a reversal, declining rates, starting as early as Q3 or Q4, 2023.
Can the government continue to service its debt at high interest rates? An economist who follows monetary policy, politics and global business much closer than our team will need to answer that question. What we know about monetary policy and our government’s current debt obligations is concerning, at best – downright frightening to others.
Black Diamond Realty anticipates seeing debt options with lower LTV ratios in 2023. Banks will adjust from offering 75-85% LTV to a range of 70-80% LTV.
Construction starts will continue to slow in most sectors. Multifamily and industrial may continue to expand in 2023 but high interest rates are putting downward pressure on construction starts.
Consumer confidence will slip. Challenging retail financial reports will follow. There will be heightened volatility in the stock market.
Our belief is that we are in the midst of a recession. It is either already here or quickly approaching. Government data lags by several months. Consumer confidence has declined during 2022.[viii]Inflation reached record highs in 2022 although it has been declining in recent months. Some believe the inflation decline is, in part, artificially enhanced by the government’s proactive action in releasing 1 million barrels per day of oil reserves. Energy prices will remain volatile especially if/when this strategy is lifted.
Black Diamond Realty is keeping a close eye on unemployment. When unemployment rates increase, consumer purchasing power will decline which will have a trickle up effect to GDP, negatively influencing most sectors in commercial real estate (most notably, retail).
For Black Diamond Realty, sales volume is forecasted to decrease while leasing volume will increase which should lead to leasing price increases in the high demand sectors (industrial and multifamily).
We recommend each party consults with its professional accountant, tax, and legal advisors to better understand the effects of market conditions and real estate transactions. Primary keys to successful investments are knowing the market, the numbers and market trends. Our professional team at Black Diamond Realty is an industry leader. Our company mission is to add value to the communities we serve. We look forward to consulting with you in 2023. Make it a successful investment year.
[1] It should be noted that interest rates can change drastically depending upon many factors, including the deal’s strength, the borrower’s financial strength (including investment and business experience), debt-to-liquidity ratios, and LTV.
Comments Off on BDR Reward Trip 2022: Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
The Black Diamond Team Heads To Mexico
Reward Trip 2022 – Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
On February 24th, the BDR crew departed for their 2022 Reward Trip to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The team spent five unforgettable days in the sun together making memories and reenergizing for the busy year ahead.
Black Diamond Realty has created a family-like, teamwork-oriented culture in which our team is vested in each other’s success. Our process is detailed and diligent but it surrounds core values and beliefs that are summarized by the acronym, HIT. “ H ” stands for honesty, hard work and humility. “ I ” stands for integrity, intelligence and innovation. “ T ” stands for teamwork, tenacity and technology. Maintaining a consistent focus on honoring our HIT value system, BDR’s team works tirelessly to achieve our clients’ goals. Recharging the battery is paramount to providing a high level of service.
Each year, Black Diamond Realty provides an incentive trip intended to reward team members who meet individual and company goals. 2022’s destination was Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The team soaked up some much needed sun at the ocean front Riu Palace Resort. The five days included lots of sun, amazing tacos, beverages, entertainment and a boat tour to the arch of Cabo San Lucas, lover’s beach and divorce beach. Our team returned to Morgantown recharged and excited for another successful year.
Thank you to all our clients, customers and reliable referral sources for trusting us with your projects. Check out some of our favorite moments below.
Comments Off on Reflecting and Projecting, BDR’s Outlook on 2022
Macroeconomics (think interest rates and national productivity) greatly impact the commercial real estate markets we serve. Three major macro topics of 2021 were inflation, interest rates and labor participation. The most recent data released by the federal government indicates year-over-year inflation is at 6.2%, which is a rise from the previous quarter’s 5.4% and a multi-decade high. From higher price tags at the gas pumps to greater expense at the grocery store, inflation causes the dollars we have in our possession to have lower purchasing power.
The current rate of inflation has initiated discussion about interest rate increases to combat inflationary concerns. Historically, the federal government has utilized one of its key monetary policy levers, interest rate control, in high inflationary periods. The Federal Chairman, Jerome Powell, and his team anticipates three interest rate hikes in 2022 and another three in 2023. BDR projects interest rates to rise 75 to 125 basis points in 2022. On average, BDR has seen commercial real estate interest rates hover around 3.5% (3.25% – 3.75%) in 2021. If BDR’s projected 2022 increase is accurate (utilizing 1% interest rate increase), a $1MM loan will be $6,322.68 more per year when amortized over 20 years.
In 2021, BDR saw a significant increase in demand for investment commercial real estate. Investors are looking to diversify. Low interest rates is one key reason. Other contributing factors include high inflation, speculation the stock market is due for a correction and investors desire to move into tertiary/rural markets. Black Diamond Realty’s thoughts behind these contributing factors include:
Low Interest Rates: The low cost of borrowing funds allows purchasers to pay more which helps meet seller valuation expectations.
High Inflation: Commercial real estate has historically been an excellent hedge against high inflationary environments. Income producing assets (investment properties) are in highest demand. In some markets, rising rents can keep up with, or ideally exceed, the rate of inflation. Some commercial leases have automatic CPI adjustments. In other growing markets, demand outpaces supply which allows rents to be pushed beyond inflation.
Speculation of a Forthcoming Stock Market Correction: Markets react in unique and complex ways to variables. History tells us the average bull run lasts ~8 years. Excluding the ~6 month pandemic-initiated recession, the stock market has been on a bull run since 2009. History tells us a correction could be coming. Some believe it. Others do not. Nobody knows when but the fear surrounding this variable encourages investors to make diversification decisions.
Increased Demand for Tertiary Market Investments: The pandemic has created a shift in mindset, beliefs and practices that has hurt many metro markets but has also created positive momentum for some tertiary markets that boast high quality of life. Eds, meds and government are seen as recession-resistant sectors. Morgantown, WV and Bridgeport, WV are excellent examples of cities that are thriving in the midst of the pandemic. Demand for these areas has increased as remote working concepts have gained popularity and individuals are transitioning out of densely populated areas.
The factors above have resulted in compressed cap rates and corresponding higher valuations. It is a great time for a seller to exit an asset while a difficult time for purchasers to find deals. Black Diamond Realty has experienced a significant increase in off-market deal activity and we anticipate this trend to continue.
North central WV and southwestern PA are enjoying many economic highlights as our nation moves further beyond the Covid pandemic. Some of the north central WV highlights are captured below.
WVU Medicine continues to expand with the forthcoming opening of its 10-story Children’s Hospital on WVU’s main campus.
WestRidge Development continues to expand its footprint as new uses are introduced to the Morgantown, WV market. Most notably, Bass Pro Shop and Menards opened its door in 2021. Many more uses and buildings are in the works.
Morgantown Industrial Park is expanding to create additional, large pads in Phase II of the development which are anticipated to have more direct access to I-79. A 47-acre sale sparked Phase II’s development.
David and Rick Biafora are investing significantly into the revitalization of Middletown Mall, now called Middletown Commons. The total projected investment is ~$40-50 million which should have a significant positive effect on South Fairmont and White Hall’s local economy.
Mitsubishi hires 400-500 additional workers at North Central West Virginia Airport location in Bridgeport, WV.
Charles Point continues to expand which will soon include 50-60 acres of retail including anchor retailer, Menards.
Bridgeport introduced a state-of-the-art, 156,000 square foot multi-purpose facility to its community. The Bridge Sports Complex brings tremendous recreational and quality of life opportunities to Harrison County and beyond.
Ascend WV is receiving positive national highlight reel exposure and has helped reverse a decades old trend of individuals migrating out of WV. According to WAJR, “Between July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, West Virginia had a net migration of 2,343. More people moved into the state than out of it.”
West Virginia’s Grant and Tucker Counties won big in securing Virgin’s Hyperloop. This multi-state, competitive process was successfully secured on an 800 acre site in central WV.
New River Gorge National Park System was introduced as West Virginia’s first federal national park.
BDR worked hard to achieve its clients’ goals in 2021. The BDR team closed 87 deals in 2021 with 61% leases versus 39% sales. BDR added a new colleague, Caleb Wooldridge, to our growing team. Caleb joins BDR as a recent WVU graduate who majored in Economics and interned with David as an undergraduate. We are excited to watch Caleb flourish in the years ahead.
In his fourth year, Jeff Stenger continues his climb by surpassing production year after year. Jeff’s empathetic, hard-working and detailed-oriented demeanor adds tremendous value to the clients he serves.
Chris Waters has been dubbed the medical marijuana and industrial guru in BDR’s office. Last year was a breakout year for Chris and 2022 looks to continue that growth.
In her first full year with the team, Kim Licciardi set a BDR record for Year 1 production. Kim’s underwriting knowledge, business acumen and confidence have quickly propelled her onto a path as a top producer.
BDR’s sales team would not be where it is today without the skillset, support and moral fabric that Janelle Zeoli and Andrea Cooper provide daily. These two women are invaluable to the BDR team and continue to support our growth and development.
As we close the 2021 chapter, we are pleased to announce BDR is aggressively and actively working toward opening a second office in Martinsburg, WV. We will be recruiting and hiring key team members in the market with a specific focus on fostering client relationships and fortifying vendor contacts. We are optimistic our presentation, process and people will be well received in this new market. There will be more to come in a future announcement.
Our team promises to continue to strive to raise the standard while exceeding expectations in this new year and beyond. Thank you for your trust and confidence and we look forward to making 2022 a great year, together.
